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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HunterZwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HunterZ

Phoenix
Phoenix
Prada · 3 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Vitaly · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Slardar
Slardar
Vitaly · 2 games
100%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
0%

Estar Backs

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 5 games
80%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Prada · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Prada · 5 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemist
bsK7- · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 3 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
299 picks · 747 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
289 picks · 261 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
260 picks · 280 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 695 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
253 picks · 243 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
252 picks · 701 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 578 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% HunterZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:20
HunterZ 49%Estar Backs 51%
The model gave 51% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by HunterZ in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerVitaly
48% · 82 games65% · 22 games
HuskarbsK7-
Huskar
Sven
SvenLumière
37% · 63 games52% · 158 games
BatriderMichael
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireMjz
50% · 86 games49% · 104 games
DisruptorAccel
Disruptor
Oracle
OraclePrada
54% · 53 games
Game 2prediction missed
HunterZ 47%Estar Backs 53%
The model gave 53% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by HunterZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 53%
Series resultHunterZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2