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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OG LATAMloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Perrito Panzonwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG LATAM

Tusk
Tusk
Elmisho · 11 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 8 games
38%
Underlord
Underlord
ILICH- · 8 games
25%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
K1 · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 7 games
43%

Perrito Panzon

Phoenix
Phoenix
MoOz · 4 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Elmisho · 3 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
K1 · 3 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
K1 · 3 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 2 games
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Elmisho · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
ILICH- · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 747 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
287 picks · 260 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
260 picks · 280 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 692 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
252 picks · 242 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
250 picks · 701 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 575 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength66% Perrito Panzon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Perrito Panzon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:14
OG LATAM 39%Perrito Panzon 61%
The model gave 61% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverCostabile
49% · 60 games51% · 224 games
MedusaK1
Medusa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAlone
47% · 180 games54% · 306 games
PuckPiPi
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackFCR
56% · 301 game47% · 119 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Silencer
SilencerPanda
51% · 150 games46% · 198 games
MarciElmisho
Marci
Tusk
TuskGenek
52% · 404 games46% · 248 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct23:32
OG LATAM 40%Perrito Panzon 60%
The model gave 60% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 51:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCostabile
45% · 255 games47% · 202 games
AbaddonK1
Abaddon
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAlone
52% · 153 games56% · 228 games
Monkey KingPiPi
Monkey King
Bristleback
BristlebackFCR
57% · 277 games47% · 79 games
AxeFrank
Axe
Snapfire
SnapfireGenek
51% · 168 games42% · 135 games
DisruptorMoOz
Disruptor
Dazzle
DazzlePanda
55% · 87 games49% · 296 games
ClockwerkElmisho
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct31:31
OG LATAM 40%Perrito Panzon 60%
The model gave 60% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 51:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomCostabile
58% · 121 game45% · 66 games
WeaverK1
Weaver
Sniper
SniperAlone
47% · 46 games48% · 173 games
Shadow FiendPiPi
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFCR
48% · 164 games48% · 145 games
Dark SeerFrank
Dark Seer
Marci
MarciGenek
53% · 125 games59% · 10 games
Spirit BreakerElmisho
Spirit Breaker
Dazzle
DazzlePanda
55% · 48 games47% · 110 games
DisruptorMoOz
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritePerrito Panzon · 69%
Series resultPerrito Panzon 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3