EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Techiessignature
Htrd · 17 games
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 16 games
Windranger
queezy · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 14 games
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 12 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 10 games
Natus Vincere
Kezoften banned
Niku · 21 game
Hoodwink
Daze · 20 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
Warlock
Riddys · 17 games
Rubick
Daze · 16 games
Shadow Demon
Daze · 16 games
Axesignature
pma · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
502 picks · 351 bans
Clockwerk
352 picks · 641 bans
Bane
347 picks · 394 bans
Rubick
329 picks · 184 bans
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 453 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Fiend
301 picks · 569 bans
Windranger
298 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:22
Level UP 38%Natus Vincere 62%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaWoE
Terrorbladegotthejuice
TidehunterBb3px
Ember SpiritNiku
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Axepma
Windrangerqueezy
Keeper of the LightDaze
ClockwerkHtrd
MiranaRiddys
Game 2prediction correct26:38
Level UP 39%Natus Vincere 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritAinkrad
LinaNiku
ClinkzWoE
Razorgotthejuice
TidehunterBb3px
Underlordpma
Windrangerqueezy
MiranaDaze
UndyingHtrd
ClockwerkRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2