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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 33 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 29 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 26 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 25 games
72%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 24 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 22 games
64%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 20 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
35%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 19 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
63%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 744 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
285 picks · 258 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
49%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 691 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
259 picks · 279 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
252 picks · 242 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
249 picks · 698 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 575 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total63% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:17
Runa Team 45%Yellow Submarine 55%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Runa Team in 41:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingnesfeer
48% · 257 games43% · 211 games
Queen of PainMirele
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
52% · 399 games47% · 355 games
Gyrocopterbottega
Gyrocopter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
53% · 73 games55% · 408 games
BristlebackInfernal
Bristleback
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
50% · 425 games53% · 228 games
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Demon
Warlock
WarlockHduo
50% · 220 games47% · 172 games
MarciXakoda
Marci
Game 2prediction missed24:14
Runa Team 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Runa Team in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
58% · 206 games50% · 165 games
Morphlingbottega
Morphling
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
53% · 211 games48% · 109 games
Queen of PainMirele
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarAlberkaaa
51% · 75 games45% · 242 games
PangolierInfernal
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
63% · 139 games41% · 137 games
DisruptorXakoda
Disruptor
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
43% · 173 games48% · 151 game
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 63%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2