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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
41%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 16 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 15 games
53%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 12 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
33%

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 24 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
73%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
67%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 742 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
280 picks · 255 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 173 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 683 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
257 picks · 275 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
250 picks · 243 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
248 picks · 688 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 572 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:13
eSpoiled 49%4Pirates 51%
The model gave 51% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidssnovv1
39% · 29 games57% · 54 games
LycanOtaker
Lycan
Leshrac
LeshracDifference
47% · 84 games54% · 46 games
SniperNattyNarwhal
Sniper
Snapfire
SnapfireWein
45% · 118 games51% · 185 games
TuskPERDAN4IK
Tusk
Pugna
Pugnaasdekor_r
52% · 167 games52% · 113 games
Disruptorariel
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct44:22
eSpoiled 53%4Pirates 47%
The model gave 53% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 48:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursassnovv1
60% · 125 games41% · 273 games
TerrorbladeOtaker
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracDifference
52% · 106 games53% · 287 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyWein
51% · 380 games38% · 100 games
Snapfireariel
Snapfire
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
62% · 148 games42% · 99 games
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 53%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2