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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 29 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 28 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 15 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 15 games
40%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 32 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 15 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 15 games
87%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 14 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
296 picks · 733 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
278 picks · 254 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 173 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
258 picks · 675 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
255 picks · 274 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
250 picks · 243 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 677 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
246 picks · 570 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:20
AVULUS 54%Passion UA 46%
The model gave 54% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSmiling Knight
51% · 80 games52% · 58 games
LunaCrystallize
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
52% · 189 games55% · 163 games
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
40% · 167 games50% · 120 games
LeshracMoonlight
Leshrac
Lion
LionEkki
46% · 147 games49% · 199 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Bane
BaneJANTER
52% · 70 games55% · 113 games
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct38:25
AVULUS 54%Passion UA 46%
The model gave 54% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLorenof
51% · 364 games48% · 258 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
55% · 134 games50% · 187 games
MedusaCrystallize
Medusa
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageSabeRLight-
48% · 65 games53% · 135 games
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Disruptor
DisruptorEkki
46% · 156 games56% · 212 games
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockJANTER
50% · 203 games42% · 130 games
SnapfireQBFY
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 61%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2