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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 35 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Nande · 26 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 24 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 22 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 21 game
67%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Stormstormer · 18 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 17 games
41%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 16 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 15 games
40%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 13 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 13 games
31%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
294 picks · 718 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
274 picks · 176 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
266 picks · 247 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 668 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
250 picks · 247 bans
46%
Pugna
Pugna
249 picks · 266 bans
55%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 656 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 555 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total78% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:30
Zero Tenacity 32%OG 68%
The model gave 68% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
50% · 294 games55% · 103 games
LunaShad
Luna
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNefrit
47% · 287 games52% · 326 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirage
49% · 85 games55% · 240 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Invoker
InvokerJeezy
46% · 221 game44% · 142 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
47% · 144 games54% · 220 games
PugnaLelis
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed47:22
Zero Tenacity 35%OG 65%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:12:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
55% · 266 games54% · 235 games
MedusaShad
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
55% · 367 games48% · 168 games
Shadow FiendStojkov
Shadow Fiend
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNefrit
55% · 206 games46% · 436 games
PangolierMikSa`
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixJeezy
49% · 289 games48% · 257 games
DawnbreakerLelis
Dawnbreaker
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
47% · 149 games43% · 181 game
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed31:17
Zero Tenacity 34%OG 66%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 46:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade423
48% · 278 games53% · 158 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingMirage
53% · 245 games48% · 221 game
Dragon KnightShad
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
35% · 84 games52% · 327 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerJeezy
52% · 242 games45% · 141 game
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSe
58% · 146 games55% · 148 games
PugnaLelis
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 78%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3