FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
20Twiceloss 0:2series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
20Twice
Marsoften banned
pJonn · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Bristleback
Dominic · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Dark Willow
ArrOw · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
294 picks · 718 bans
Shadow Shaman
274 picks · 176 bans
Disruptor
266 picks · 247 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 668 bans
Tusk
250 picks · 247 bans
Pugna
249 picks · 266 bans
Marci
246 picks · 656 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 555 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 61%
Hero pool strength61% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:32
20Twice 8%Kalmychata 92%
The model gave 92% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 28:08.
Game 2prediction correct16:37
20Twice 8%Kalmychata 92%
The model gave 92% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 30:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 92%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2