DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4Pirateswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 18 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
4Pirates
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 23 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
294 picks · 718 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
Disruptor
264 picks · 247 bans
Dawnbreaker
257 picks · 667 bans
Pugna
249 picks · 266 bans
Tusk
249 picks · 251 bans
Marci
246 picks · 651 bans
Nature's Prophet
245 picks · 558 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total77% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:16
Yellow Submarine 66%4Pirates 34%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladebottega
UndyingOtaker
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
PuckMirele
Hoodwinkariel
Shadow Demonsayuw
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
SnapfireXakoda
Game 2prediction missed20:42
Yellow Submarine 65%4Pirates 35%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 46:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladebottega
ClinkzOtaker
Ember SpiritMirele
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
EarthshakerInfernal
Disruptorariel
Phoenixsayuw
TuskPERDAN4IK
SnapfireXakoda
Game 3prediction missed33:34
Yellow Submarine 66%4Pirates 34%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterMirele
PuckNattyNarwhal
Shadow Fiendbottega
ClinkzOtaker
SlardarInfernal
Batriderariel
Snapfiresayuw
TuskPERDAN4IK
Naga SirenXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 77%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3