Inner Circle vs eSpoiled — prediction DS2ЗК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Inner Circleloss 0:2

series probability

51%49%

probability at match start · final 0:2

eSpoiledwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

No games played over 6 months.

eSpoiled

Bane

asdekor_r · 17 games

41%

Marcioften banned

Wein · 16 games

50%

Batrideroften banned

Wein · 15 games

47%

Chensignature

asdekor_r · 15 games

67%

Snapfire

Wein · 14 games

50%

Disruptor

asdekor_r · 13 games

31%

Shadow Shaman

Wein · 12 games

33%

Tuskoften banned

Wein · 12 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

294 picks · 718 bans

51%

Shadow Shaman

276 picks · 177 bans

50%

Disruptor

264 picks · 247 bans

47%

Dawnbreaker

257 picks · 667 bans

49%

Pugna

249 picks · 266 bans

55%

Tusk

249 picks · 251 bans

45%

Marci

246 picks · 651 bans

55%

Nature's Prophet

245 picks · 558 bans

58%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 41%

Hero pool strength53% Inner Circle

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total51% Inner Circle

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed9:33

Inner Circle 52%eSpoiled 48%

The model gave 52% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 38:21.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo