DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cloud Risingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Surge Gaming
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hara · 2 games
Silenceroften banned
Hara · 2 games
Svenoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Irving · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Hara · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Night · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Night · 1 game
Cloud Rising
Gyrocopteroften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 2 games
Void Spirit
Q7 · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
292 picks · 712 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
Disruptor
261 picks · 245 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 665 bans
Pugna
249 picks · 264 bans
Tusk
248 picks · 250 bans
Marci
245 picks · 645 bans
Dark Willow
243 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Surge Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Surge Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:34
Surge Gaming 56%Cloud Rising 44%
The model gave 56% on Surge Gaming — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerukiyo
SvenYumeyume
MarsIrving
TimbersawQ7
SlardarNight
EnchantressHara
Game 2prediction missed26:52
Surge Gaming 53%Cloud Rising 47%
The model gave 53% on Surge Gaming — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 42:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinkerukiyo
UrsaYumeyume
Monkey KingNight
PuckQ7
AxeIrving
PudgeHara
Model check result
Model favoriteSurge Gaming · 56%
Series resultCloud Rising 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2