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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Aureusloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 20 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 16 games
56%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Jaunuel · 12 games
42%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
36%
Mirana
Mirana
Jaunuel · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Armel · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Jabz · 10 games
60%

Team Aureus

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
292 picks · 712 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
261 picks · 245 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 665 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
249 picks · 264 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
248 picks · 250 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
245 picks · 645 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
243 picks · 103 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:44
BOOM Esports 56%Team Aureus 44%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 58:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordJaCkky
58% · 51 game41% · 147 games
MarciNatsumi
Marci
Puck
PuckSancity
44% · 251 game61% · 258 games
Monkey KingYopaj
Monkey King
Magnus
MagnusJabz
60% · 207 games46% · 192 games
DoomForce
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressNARMAN
47% · 145 games58% · 104 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJhocam
47% · 132 games41% · 85 games
DisruptorTims
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct24:9
BOOM Esports 57%Team Aureus 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingJaCkky
48% · 262 games58% · 327 games
Monkey KingNatsumi
Monkey King
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSancity
51% · 243 games53% · 362 games
BristlebackForce
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJabz
48% · 209 games49% · 186 games
EarthshakerYopaj
Earthshaker
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNARMAN
62% · 147 games46% · 223 games
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskJhocam
45% · 393 games38% · 156 games
WindrangerTims
Windranger
Game 3prediction correct29:8
BOOM Esports 57%Team Aureus 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaJaCkky
55% · 103 games54% · 125 games
LifestealerNatsumi
Lifestealer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSancity
54% · 201 game43% · 142 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerJabz
50% · 154 games52% · 266 games
BeastmasterForce
Beastmaster
Warlock
WarlockNARMAN
49% · 163 games48% · 79 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorJhocam
45% · 104 games48% · 113 games
SnapfireSkem
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 62%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3