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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kukuysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 6 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 6 games
83%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 6 games
33%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Shanks · 5 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Palos · 5 games
60%

Kukuys

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Gabbi · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gabbi · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
292 picks · 710 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 178 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
260 picks · 242 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 664 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
249 picks · 250 bans
45%
Pugna
Pugna
247 picks · 261 bans
55%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 638 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
244 picks · 103 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:6
Execration 53%Kukuys 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 28:34.
Game 2prediction correct22:15
Execration 53%Kukuys 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 53%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2