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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OG LATAMwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sentinel Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG LATAM

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Elmisho · 11 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 8 games
38%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
K1 · 7 games
43%
Underlord
Underlord
ILICH- · 7 games
29%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
MoOz · 6 games
17%

Sentinel Esports

Phoenix
Phoenix
Pamplona · 2 games
100%
Slardar
Slardar
Hermit · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
555k · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Pamplona · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555k · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Hermit · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
291 picks · 708 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 178 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
258 picks · 241 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 659 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
249 picks · 250 bans
45%
Pugna
Pugna
247 picks · 260 bans
55%
Marci
Marci
245 picks · 634 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
244 picks · 103 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength63% Sentinel Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% OG LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:32
OG LATAM 56%Sentinel Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by Sentinel Esports in 41:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCostabile
38% · 87 games55% · 113 games
Centaur WarrunnerHermit
Centaur Warrunner
Underlord
UnderlordFCR
45% · 37 games58% · 222 games
PhoenixPamplona
Phoenix
Sand King
Sand KingAlone
47% · 124 games54% · 86 games
Silencer555k
Silencer
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
51% · 83 games
Snapfire
SnapfireGenek
40% · 90 games
Game 2prediction correct33:18
OG LATAM 58%Sentinel Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 32:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCostabile
55% · 91 game45% · 57 games
SlardarHermit
Slardar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAlone
55% · 91 game47% · 113 games
Silencer555k
Silencer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFCR
59% · 56 games44% · 103 games
HoodwinkPamplona
Hoodwink
Pudge
PudgeGenek
54% · 9 games
Dazzle
DazzlePanda
50% · 26 games
Game 3prediction correct35:29
OG LATAM 59%Sentinel Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCostabile
59% · 88 games41% · 130 games
KunkkaHermit
Kunkka
Timbersaw
TimbersawFCR
49% · 71 game49% · 124 games
Disruptor555k
Disruptor
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAlone
56% · 85 games47% · 135 games
SnapfirePamplona
Snapfire
Dazzle
DazzlePanda
52% · 34 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGenek
55% · 111 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOG LATAM · 69%
Series resultOG LATAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3