DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AllStarswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDemoniosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AllStars
Marsoften banned
blessed kid · 6 games
Warlocksignature
Accel · 6 games
Omniknight
blessed kid · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
Tuskoften banned
Accel · 5 games
Dragon Knight
Benjimon · 4 games
Clockwerk
Asao · 3 games
Demonios
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
291 picks · 708 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 178 bans
Disruptor
258 picks · 241 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 659 bans
Tusk
249 picks · 250 bans
Pugna
247 picks · 260 bans
Marci
245 picks · 634 bans
Dark Willow
244 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Demonios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% AllStars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
AllStars 71%Demonios 29%
The model gave 71% on AllStars — the game was taken by AllStars.
Game 2prediction correct
AllStars 71%Demonios 29%
The model gave 71% on AllStars — the game was taken by AllStars.
Model check result
Model favoriteAllStars · 71%
Series resultAllStars 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2