DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:0series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tealoss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 14 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 14 games
Snapfire
Wein · 14 games
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 13 games
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 12 games
Team Tea
Hoodwink
dEsire · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 3 games
Slardar
Cloud · 3 games
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Worick · 2 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 699 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 234 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
247 picks · 250 bans
Marci
244 picks · 618 bans
Dark Willow
242 picks · 103 bans
Pugna
242 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:9
eSpoiled 36%Team Tea 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusassnovv1
UrsaKami
Ember SpiritDifference
Dark SeerCloud
Chenasdekor_r
Storm SpiritWorick
BatriderWein
TuskdEsire
47% · 154 games
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction missed37:12
eSpoiled 34%Team Tea 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 52:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursassnovv1
MedusaKami
SlardarDifference
Sand KingWorick
Warlockasdekor_r
MagnusCloud
Shadow DemonWein
PugnaSoNNeikO
52% · 138 games
RingmasterdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 76%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2