FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 22 games
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 16 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
Shadow Shamansignature
swedenstrong · 14 games
eSpoiled
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 14 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 14 games
Snapfire
Wein · 13 games
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
288 picks · 699 bans
Shadow Shaman
278 picks · 178 bans
Disruptor
255 picks · 229 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 651 bans
Tusk
247 picks · 252 bans
Marci
245 picks · 614 bans
Dark Willow
244 picks · 105 bans
Pugna
242 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 40%
Hero pool strength62% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:23
1w Team 69%eSpoiled 31%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 56:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSquad1x
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
SlardarDifference
BristlebackSSS
Enchantressasdekor_r
Tuskswedenstrong
DisruptorWein
Snapfirekasane
Game 2prediction correct19:7
1w Team 71%eSpoiled 29%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonMunkushi~
Templar Assassinssnovv1
EarthshakerSquad1x
LeshracDifference
BristlebackSSS
SnapfireWein
Chenkasane
Enchantressasdekor_r
Ringmasterswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 84%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2