BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionQQuanXingloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DDongwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
QuanXing
No games played over 6 months.
Dong
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
290 picks · 700 bans
Shadow Shaman
281 picks · 179 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 227 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
249 picks · 253 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 105 bans
Marci
245 picks · 611 bans
Nature's Prophet
242 picks · 549 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% QuanXing
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% QuanXing
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:12
QuanXing 55%Dong 45%
The model gave 55% on QuanXing — the game was taken by QuanXing in 29:47.
Game 2prediction missed15:29
QuanXing 55%Dong 45%
The model gave 55% on QuanXing — the game was taken by Dong in 39:55.
Game 3prediction missed23:33
QuanXing 55%Dong 45%
The model gave 55% on QuanXing — the game was taken by Dong in 30:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuanXing · 55%
Series resultDong 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3