BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 21 game
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 16 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
Shadow Shamansignature
swedenstrong · 14 games
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 19 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spirit
WoE · 17 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 697 bans
Shadow Shaman
281 picks · 179 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 226 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
249 picks · 253 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 105 bans
Marci
245 picks · 608 bans
Nature's Prophet
242 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:23
1w Team 61%Kalmychata 39%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
SvenWoE
BristlebackSSS
Void SpiritEthereal
PuckSquad1x
DawnbreakerAnkou
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Bounty Hunterraregods
Elder Titankasane
WarlockHtrd
Game 2prediction missed
1w Team 70%Kalmychata 30%
The model gave 70% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 70%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2