BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
No games played over 6 months.
Pipsqueak+4
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 5 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 4 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
Palantimos · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
Pudge
Nande · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 694 bans
Shadow Shaman
280 picks · 179 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 225 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
249 picks · 253 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 105 bans
Marci
245 picks · 604 bans
Nature's Prophet
242 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 80%
Hero pool strength62% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:14
Inner Circle 17%Pipsqueak+4 83%
The model gave 83% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:36.
Game 2prediction correct11:23
Inner Circle 17%Pipsqueak+4 83%
The model gave 83% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:18.
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 83%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2