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DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kukuyswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The MongolZ

Doom
Doomoften banned
JG · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Bob · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
DJ · 3 games
0%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
DJ · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Bob · 2 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 2 games
100%

Kukuys

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Gabbi · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gabbi · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
287 picks · 695 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
281 picks · 178 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
255 picks · 222 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
252 picks · 652 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
250 picks · 253 bans
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
246 picks · 105 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 601 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
242 picks · 547 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% The MongolZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:49
The MongolZ 32%Kukuys 68%
The model gave 68% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Kukuys in 34:48.
Game 2prediction correct19:57
The MongolZ 32%Kukuys 68%
The model gave 68% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Kukuys in 31:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteKukuys · 68%
Series resultKukuys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2