DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTToLightloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TThrivingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight
No games played over 6 months.
Thriving
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 691 bans
Shadow Shaman
285 picks · 178 bans
Disruptor
255 picks · 222 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
251 picks · 252 bans
Dark Willow
247 picks · 105 bans
Marci
246 picks · 600 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 545 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% ToLight
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% ToLight
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:37
ToLight 69%Thriving 31%
The model gave 69% on ToLight — the game was taken by Thriving in 43:45.
Game 2prediction missed24:29
ToLight 69%Thriving 31%
The model gave 69% on ToLight — the game was taken by Thriving in 42:22.
Game 3prediction missed13:29
ToLight 69%Thriving 31%
The model gave 69% on ToLight — the game was taken by Thriving in 38:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteToLight · 69%
Series resultThriving 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3