DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 1:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:0
wwloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
Earthshakersignature
erase · 20 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 14 games
Warlock
Bb3px · 14 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
ww
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 690 bans
Shadow Shaman
285 picks · 178 bans
Disruptor
255 picks · 221 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 651 bans
Tusk
251 picks · 252 bans
Dark Willow
247 picks · 104 bans
Marci
246 picks · 598 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 544 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
HULIGANI 86%ww 14%
The model gave 86% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 86%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1