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DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 1:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Riftloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
41%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 14 games
43%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 14 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 13 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 12 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 12 games
50%

Rift

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 690 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
285 picks · 178 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
255 picks · 221 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 651 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
251 picks · 252 bans
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
247 picks · 104 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 598 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 544 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Rift
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
eSpoiled 55%Rift 45%
The model gave 55% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 55%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1