DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Timebombloss 0:1series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:1
3 penguins 2 ruinerswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Timebomb
No games played over 6 months.
3 penguins 2 ruiners
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 690 bans
Shadow Shaman
285 picks · 178 bans
Disruptor
255 picks · 221 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 651 bans
Tusk
251 picks · 252 bans
Dark Willow
247 picks · 104 bans
Marci
246 picks · 598 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 544 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Timebomb
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% 3 penguins 2 ruiners
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Timebomb 18%3 penguins 2 ruiners 82%
The model gave 82% on 3 penguins 2 ruiners — the game was taken by 3 penguins 2 ruiners.
Model check result
Model favorite3 penguins 2 ruiners · 82%
Series result3 penguins 2 ruiners 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1