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BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 28 games
46%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 24 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 22 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 22 games
68%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 21 game
67%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 21 game
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 17 games
71%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 15 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 14 games
36%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
swedenstrong · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 689 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
287 picks · 178 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 651 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
254 picks · 220 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
252 picks · 252 bans
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
247 picks · 105 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 596 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 544 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total76% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:37
Runa Team 36%1w Team 64%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
57% · 137 games51% · 150 games
EarthshakerSquad1x
Earthshaker
Primal Beast
Primal Beastnicky`cool
50% · 114 games39% · 126 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
49% · 135 games52% · 125 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenHduo
60% · 90 games45% · 174 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
45% · 181 game52% · 82 games
Elder Titankasane
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed32:23
Runa Team 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 44:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonnesfeer
53% · 146 games49% · 151 game
EarthshakerSquad1x
Earthshaker
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
50% · 122 games46% · 103 games
UrsaMunkushi~
Ursa
Primal Beast
Primal Beastnicky`cool
42% · 132 games50% · 57 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
52% · 238 games49% · 246 games
Pugnaswedenstrong
Pugna
Chen
ChenHduo
58% · 96 games49% · 177 games
Warlockkasane
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct19:31
Runa Team 36%1w Team 64%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopternesfeer
53% · 356 games56% · 292 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
48% · 323 games54% · 167 games
EarthshakerSquad1x
Earthshaker
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
44% · 195 games55% · 265 games
PhoenixSSS
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
44% · 109 games51% · 179 games
Enchantresskasane
Enchantress
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
41% · 216 games53% · 296 games
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 76%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3