747 vs Yangon Galacticos — prediction EOKL2ОК · Dota 2

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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1

result vs prediction

747loss 0:1

series probability

37%63%

probability at match start · final 0:1

Yangon Galacticoswin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

747

Dark Willow

Boomy · 1 game

Dazzleoften banned

Karl · 1 game

Enchantressoften banned

Jaunuel · 1 game

Kunkkaoften banned

db- · 1 game

Lifestealeroften banned

inYourdreaM · 1 game

Yangon Galacticos

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Vengeful Spirit

216 picks · 271 bans

52%

Grimstroke

184 picks · 178 bans

54%

Pangolier

182 picks · 387 bans

54%

Dark Willow

175 picks · 71 bans

51%

Sven

169 picks · 248 bans

57%

Earthshaker

168 picks · 166 bans

59%

Earth Spirit

150 picks · 242 bans

47%

Phoenix

150 picks · 203 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%

Hero pool strength55% Yangon Galacticos

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total63% Yangon Galacticos

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct20:35

747 46%Yangon Galacticos 54%

The model gave 54% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 47:04.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo