BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTToLightwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TThrivingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight
No games played over 6 months.
Thriving
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 686 bans
Shadow Shaman
289 picks · 179 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 249 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 650 bans
Disruptor
252 picks · 216 bans
Dark Willow
249 picks · 105 bans
Marci
244 picks · 591 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% ToLight
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% ToLight
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:27
ToLight 60%Thriving 40%
The model gave 60% on ToLight — the game was taken by Thriving in 44:55.
Game 2prediction missed7:17
ToLight 60%Thriving 40%
The model gave 60% on ToLight — the game was taken by Thriving in 24:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteToLight · 60%
Series resultToLight 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2