DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Carstensz Esportsloss 0:1series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Kukuyswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Carstensz Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Kukuys
Ancient Apparition
Gabbi · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Alchemist
Natsumi · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Natsumi · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
Disruptor
Gabbi · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 686 bans
Shadow Shaman
289 picks · 179 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 249 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 650 bans
Disruptor
252 picks · 216 bans
Dark Willow
249 picks · 105 bans
Marci
244 picks · 589 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:22
Carstensz Esports 13%Kukuys 87%
The model gave 87% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Kukuys in 37:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteKukuys · 87%
Series resultKukuys 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1