DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sentinel Esportswin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AllStarsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sentinel Esports
Chenoften banned
555k · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Hermit · 1 game
Phoenix
Pamplona · 1 game
Slardar
Hermit · 1 game
Warlock
555k · 1 game
AllStars
Warlocksignature
Accel · 6 games
Omniknight
blessed kid · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
Dragon Knight
bsK7- · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Sacred · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Benjimon · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
blessed kid · 3 games
Oracle
Accel · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
291 picks · 686 bans
Shadow Shaman
289 picks · 184 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 645 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 251 bans
Dark Willow
251 picks · 107 bans
Disruptor
251 picks · 214 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 539 bans
Marci
243 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Sentinel Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% AllStars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:31
Sentinel Esports 48%AllStars 52%
The model gave 52% on AllStars — the game was taken by Sentinel Esports in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlardarHermit
PangolierBenjimon
Silencer555k
Marciblessed kid
Dark WillowPamplona
SnapfireMichael
56% · 127 games
ClockwerkFeelinG
Game 2prediction missed31:12
Sentinel Esports 47%AllStars 53%
The model gave 53% on AllStars — the game was taken by Sentinel Esports in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterHermit
Shadow FiendBenjimon
Disruptor555k
Marsblessed kid
PhoenixPamplona
SnapfireMichael
49% · 253 games
TuskFeelinG
Model check result
Model favoriteAllStars · 58%
Series resultSentinel Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2