?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 12 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 11 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Thiolicor · 11 games
27%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 10 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 9 games
56%

Pipsqueak+4

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 3 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 3 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Kaori · 3 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
292 picks · 685 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
291 picks · 186 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 640 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
255 picks · 250 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
253 picks · 108 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
250 picks · 213 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
246 picks · 536 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
243 picks · 576 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 79%
Hero pool strength60% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:49
MOUZ 54%Pipsqueak+4 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
50% · 301 game44% · 146 games
MarsNande
Mars
Lycan
LycanBOOM
55% · 117 games45% · 114 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMidOne
52% · 143 games55% · 192 games
Monkey Kingxn丶e
Monkey King
Snapfire
Snapfireyamich
50% · 117 games48% · 292 games
BatriderKaori
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorSeleri
51% · 160 games51% · 94 games
SilencerKidaro
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed39:47
MOUZ 55%Pipsqueak+4 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 45:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
58% · 199 games49% · 34 games
PudgeNande
Pudge
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
53% · 191 game44% · 266 games
Dragon Knightxn丶e
Dragon Knight
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
46% · 126 games48% · 114 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
49% · 129 games54% · 222 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Earthshaker
Earthshakeryamich
59% · 142 games42% · 151 game
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 61%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2