DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Tealoss 0:1series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 0:1
RRiftwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Hoodwink
dEsire · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Worick · 2 games
Slardar
Cloud · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 1 game
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 1 game
Elder Titan
SoNNeikO · 1 game
Rift
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
292 picks · 685 bans
Shadow Shaman
291 picks · 186 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 640 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 250 bans
Dark Willow
253 picks · 108 bans
Disruptor
249 picks · 213 bans
Nature's Prophet
246 picks · 535 bans
Marci
243 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:30
Team Tea 88%Rift 12%
The model gave 88% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Rift in 35:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 88%
Series resultRift 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1