DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:1series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Pipsqueak+4win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Muerta
Delight · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Pipsqueak+4
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 3 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
Snapfire
Kaori · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 686 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 110 bans
Dawnbreaker
258 picks · 639 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 258 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 532 bans
Disruptor
247 picks · 212 bans
Marci
245 picks · 564 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 77%
Hero pool strength62% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Winter Bear 20%Pipsqueak+4 80%
The model gave 80% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4.
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 80%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1