DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionFfirebirdloss 0:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:1
3 penguins 2 ruinerswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
firebird
No games played over 6 months.
3 penguins 2 ruiners
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 685 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 110 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 258 bans
Dawnbreaker
257 picks · 638 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 531 bans
Disruptor
247 picks · 212 bans
Marci
245 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% firebird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% 3 penguins 2 ruiners
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
firebird 30%3 penguins 2 ruiners 70%
The model gave 70% on 3 penguins 2 ruiners — the game was taken by 3 penguins 2 ruiners.
Model check result
Model favorite3 penguins 2 ruiners · 70%
Series result3 penguins 2 ruiners 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1