DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
REKONIXwin 1:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Essenceloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
REKONIX
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 3 games
Ancient Apparition
Varizh · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Hoodwink
dalul · 2 games
Lion
dalul · 2 games
Bane
Varizh · 1 game
Disruptor
Varizh · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
Team Essence
Shadow Shaman
Ponyo · 4 games
Storm Spirit
Mac · 4 games
Disruptor
Ponyo · 3 games
Tiny
Mac · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Akashi · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Mac · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Akashi · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Akashi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 683 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 110 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 258 bans
Dawnbreaker
257 picks · 636 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 531 bans
Disruptor
247 picks · 211 bans
Marci
245 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
REKONIX 76%Team Essence 24%
The model gave 76% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX.
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 76%
Series resultREKONIX 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1