x5 Gaming vs Sentinel Esports — prediction FP—D2ОК 2 · Dota 2

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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

x5 Gamingloss 0:2

series probability

63%37%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Sentinel Esportswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

x5 Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Sentinel Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Shadow Shaman

298 picks · 192 bans

49%

Puck

295 picks · 681 bans

51%

Dark Willow

260 picks · 110 bans

47%

Tusk

258 picks · 257 bans

46%

Dawnbreaker

257 picks · 632 bans

48%

Nature's Prophet

251 picks · 531 bans

58%

Disruptor

246 picks · 210 bans

47%

Marci

245 picks · 557 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% x5 Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total63% x5 Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 2prediction missed3:30

x5 Gaming 58%Sentinel Esports 42%

The model gave 58% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by Sentinel Esports in 36:00.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo