FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aim Possibleloss 0:2series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Ancient Apparition
Garbat1y · 4 games
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
Bane
Garbat1y · 3 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
Tiny
bottega · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
293 picks · 675 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 108 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 257 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 628 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 527 bans
Marci
244 picks · 548 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 52%
Hero pool strength62% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total86% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:38
Aim Possible 31%Yellow Submarine 69%
The model gave 69% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 27:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnuszenica
Anti-Magebottega
41% · 30 games
LycanInfernal
52% · 19 games
Void SpiritMirele
35% · 27 games
Hoodwinksayuw
36% · 18 games
DisruptorXakoda
Game 2prediction correct14:32
Aim Possible 30%Yellow Submarine 70%
The model gave 70% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomzenica
Templar Assassinbottega
42% · 51 game
Queen of PainMirele
48% · 59 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
41% · 33 games
Hoodwinksayuw
47% · 30 games
DisruptorXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 86%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2