European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
Earthshakersignature
erase · 19 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Warlock
aik · 14 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 13 games
Winter Bear
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Muerta
Delight · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
290 picks · 671 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 108 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 624 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 524 bans
Marci
244 picks · 541 bans
Batrider
241 picks · 677 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:6
HULIGANI 71%Winter Bear 29%
The model gave 71% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordv1olent-
PuckPanda
Primal Beasterase
MarsBb3px
Naga SirenRESPECT
Snapfireslimeyao
Game 2prediction correct32:6
HULIGANI 70%Winter Bear 30%
The model gave 70% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 24:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordv1olent-
Shadow FiendPanda
Monkey Kingerase
MarsBb3px
ChenRESPECT
Snapfireslimeyao
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 81%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2