FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Aim Possiblewin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aurumloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Ancient Apparition
Garbat1y · 4 games
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
Bane
Garbat1y · 3 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
Aurum
Disruptor
piro · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
289 picks · 668 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 107 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 623 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 524 bans
Marci
244 picks · 536 bans
Disruptor
241 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Aurum
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Aim Possible
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:11
Aim Possible 53%Aurum 47%
The model gave 53% on Aim Possible — the game was taken by Aim Possible in 32:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteAim Possible · 53%
Series resultAim Possible 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1