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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
20Twiceloss 0:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:1
eSpoiledwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

20Twice

Doom
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
100%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%

eSpoiled

Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
41%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 14 games
43%
Chen
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 12 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 11 games
27%
Pugna
Pugna
asdekor_r · 11 games
18%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 668 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
260 picks · 107 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 623 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 524 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 536 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 203 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 32%
Hero pool strength52% 20Twice
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
20Twice 32%eSpoiled 68%
The model gave 68% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 68%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1