FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionCChelsiloss 0:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Aurumwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chelsi
No games played over 6 months.
Aurum
Disruptor
piro · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
289 picks · 668 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 107 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 623 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 524 bans
Marci
244 picks · 536 bans
Disruptor
241 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Chelsi
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Chelsi
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Chelsi 52%Aurum 48%
The model gave 52% on Chelsi — the game was taken by Aurum.
Model check result
Model favoriteChelsi · 52%
Series resultAurum 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1