FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
20Twicewin 1:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
BBratvaStonikBakislav1014loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
20Twice
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
BratvaStonikBakislav1014
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
289 picks · 667 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 107 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
Dawnbreaker
252 picks · 621 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 520 bans
Marci
244 picks · 532 bans
Batrider
240 picks · 676 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% BratvaStonikBakislav1014
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% BratvaStonikBakislav1014
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
20Twice 43%BratvaStonikBakislav1014 57%
The model gave 57% on BratvaStonikBakislav1014 — the game was taken by 20Twice.
Model check result
Model favoriteBratvaStonikBakislav1014 · 57%
Series result20Twice 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1