FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fantasy Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Naga Sirenoften banned
Prada · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
Tusk
Prada · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Wits · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Frank · 2 games
Phantom Assassin
Wits · 2 games
Fantasy Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
300 picks · 193 bans
Puck
292 picks · 665 bans
Dark Willow
261 picks · 109 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 253 bans
Dawnbreaker
251 picks · 620 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 518 bans
Marci
244 picks · 530 bans
Batrider
241 picks · 676 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:18
Estar Backs 61%Fantasy Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 17:35.
Game 2prediction correct16:34
Estar Backs 61%Fantasy Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 31:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 61%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2