FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Teawin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 1 game
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 1 game
Elder Titan
SoNNeikO · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Kami · 1 game
Muerta
dEsire · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kami · 1 game
Snapfire
dEsire · 1 game
Nemiga Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 23 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 17 games
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
Tusk
xsvampire · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
300 picks · 193 bans
Puck
292 picks · 662 bans
Dark Willow
261 picks · 109 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 253 bans
Dawnbreaker
251 picks · 618 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 516 bans
Marci
243 picks · 528 bans
Batrider
241 picks · 676 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:9
Team Tea 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 39:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciKami
Faceless Voidbashka
SlardarCloud
Keeper of the Lightyoung G
Sand KingWorick
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
WarlockSoNNeikO
Snapfirelupsione
HoodwinkdEsire
Disruptorxsvampire
Game 2prediction correct34:5
Team Tea 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonKami
Earthshakeryoung G
Sand KingWorick
Ursabashka
SlardarCloud
PangolierCovisnine
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Snapfirelupsione
HoodwinkdEsire
Warlockxsvampire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 65%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2