FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBVbon voyagewin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wolf Warriorsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
bon voyage
Elder Titan
Nagato · 2 games
Wolf Warriors
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
303 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 659 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 113 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 251 bans
Dawnbreaker
251 picks · 612 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 514 bans
Batrider
244 picks · 677 bans
Marci
244 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Wolf Warriors
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% bon voyage
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:26
bon voyage 56%Wolf Warriors 44%
The model gave 56% on bon voyage — the game was taken by bon voyage in 26:01.
Game 2prediction correct37:11
bon voyage 56%Wolf Warriors 44%
The model gave 56% on bon voyage — the game was taken by bon voyage in 21:37.
Model check result
Model favoritebon voyage · 56%
Series resultbon voyage 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2