European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 1:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 1:0
UBUkrainian Boysloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Tusk
Kaori · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
Warlock
Kaori · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
Disruptor
Kaori · 1 game
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
xn丶e · 1 game
Ukrainian Boys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
307 picks · 193 bans
Puck
296 picks · 659 bans
Dark Willow
263 picks · 113 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 253 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 605 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 514 bans
Batrider
244 picks · 678 bans
Marci
242 picks · 516 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Pipsqueak+4 92%Ukrainian Boys 8%
The model gave 92% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4.
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 92%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1