European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dragon Knight
MaTson · 20 games
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 13 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
Mirana
Ponlo · 11 games
Winter Bear
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Muerta
Delight · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
309 picks · 193 bans
Puck
296 picks · 661 bans
Dark Willow
263 picks · 113 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 253 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 604 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 513 bans
Batrider
244 picks · 678 bans
Marci
242 picks · 514 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:37
Level UP 47%Winter Bear 53%
The model gave 53% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterMaTson
Sand KingPanda
RingmasterAtoufix
Game 2prediction correct18:46
Level UP 48%Winter Bear 52%
The model gave 52% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMaTson
Shadow FiendPanda
BatriderAtoufix
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 53%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2