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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
armageddon · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 1 game
0%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
takizawa · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 1 game
0%
Pugna
Pugna
VaniLLl · 1 game
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 1 game
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
egx · 1 game
0%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 21 game
62%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
62%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Underlord
Underlord
Covisnine · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
312 picks · 199 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
297 picks · 664 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
265 picks · 116 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
255 picks · 254 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 602 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
252 picks · 680 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 511 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
241 picks · 510 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:19
VP.Prodigy 35%Nemiga Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinegx
59% · 172 games37% · 87 games
Svenbashka
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSerenada
55% · 251 game51% · 131 game
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
Mars
Marstakizawa
51% · 156 games45% · 79 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Snapfire
Snapfirearmageddon
54% · 117 games45% · 126 games
Disruptorxsvampire
Disruptor
49% · 273 games
Tusklupsione
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct17:30
VP.Prodigy 33%Nemiga Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSerenada
50% · 230 games55% · 122 games
Templar Assassinbashka
Templar Assassin
Lifestealer
Lifestealeregx
51% · 97 games51% · 115 games
Earthshakeryoung G
Earthshaker
Mars
Marstakizawa
50% · 145 games48% · 75 games
Night StalkerCovisnine
Night Stalker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkarmageddon
47% · 122 games45% · 199 games
Dark Willowlupsione
Dark Willow
53% · 83 games
Silencerxsvampire
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct13:36
VP.Prodigy 33%Nemiga Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marciegx
49% · 232 games62% · 41 game
Troll Warlordbashka
Troll Warlord
Primal Beast
Primal Beasttakizawa
51% · 163 games44% · 86 games
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Centaur Warrunner
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSerenada
53% · 199 games50% · 212 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Snapfire
Snapfirearmageddon
48% · 145 games48% · 192 games
Dark Willowlupsione
Dark Willow
49% · 208 games
Tuskxsvampire
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 78%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3