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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eSpoiledloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 19 games
74%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 15 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 13 games
77%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 13 games
54%

eSpoiled

Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 16 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 14 games
43%
Chen
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 12 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 11 games
27%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
323 picks · 205 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 669 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
267 picks · 122 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
259 picks · 257 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
255 picks · 693 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 597 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 510 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
241 picks · 506 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 31%
Hero pool strength59% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:27
HULIGANI 73%eSpoiled 27%
The model gave 73% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursav1olent-
50% · 91 game55% · 31 game
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Faceless Void
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
58% · 58 games46% · 122 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Marci
MarciBb3px
56% · 104 games42% · 98 games
Snapfireasdekor_r
Snapfire
Batrider
Batriderslimeyao
52% · 226 games50% · 378 games
TinyWein
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
48% · 150 games
Game 2prediction correct19:8
HULIGANI 74%eSpoiled 26%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordv1olent-
59% · 31 game52% · 144 games
Nature's Prophetssnovv1
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
51% · 403 games47% · 233 games
Storm SpiritDifference
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsBb3px
38% · 163 games53% · 163 games
Pugnaasdekor_r
Pugna
Chen
ChenRESPECT
62% · 128 games49% · 318 games
TinyWein
Tiny
Snapfire
Snapfireslimeyao
43% · 133 games
Game 3prediction correct41:11
HULIGANI 75%eSpoiled 25%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 48:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordv1olent-
54% · 20 games47% · 23 games
Anti-Magessnovv1
Anti-Mage
Sand King
Sand Kingerase
46% · 110 games44% · 231 game
PuckDifference
Puck
Mars
MarsBb3px
49% · 111 games51% · 139 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRESPECT
65% · 83 games50% · 62 games
BaneWein
Bane
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonslimeyao
49% · 131 game
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 87%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3