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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 33 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 29 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 26 games
73%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 26 games
77%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 24 games
79%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
No[o]ne · 24 games
58%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 22 games
68%

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 29 games
76%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 28 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
Ame · 24 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 23 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 19 games
53%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Poloson · 19 games
63%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Poloson · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
337 picks · 230 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
308 picks · 690 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
276 picks · 266 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
275 picks · 139 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
267 picks · 718 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 601 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 516 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
243 picks · 508 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total52% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:7
PARIVISION 53%Xtreme Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 42:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSatanic
54% · 96 gameslittle data
Phantom LancerAme
Phantom Lancer
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
42% · 124 games60% · 105 games
Shadow FiendXm
Shadow Fiend
Enigma
EnigmaDM
57% · 115 games41% · 171 game
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Void Spirit
Void Spirit9Class
55% · 66 games43% · 124 games
WarlockxNova
Warlock
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDukalis
48% · 71 game53% · 72 games
Nyx AssassinXinQ
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed5:15
PARIVISION 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageSatanic
66% · 11 games46% · 213 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
50% · 204 games42% · 64 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
55% · 263 games50% · 136 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Oracle
OracleDukalis
55% · 28 games41% · 107 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Alchemist
Alchemist9Class
53% · 74 games55% · 60 games
BanexNova
Bane
Game 3prediction missed8:20
PARIVISION 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:04:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
52% · 338 games52% · 233 games
MedusaAme
Medusa
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
56% · 182 games46% · 281 game
PuckXm
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
57% · 267 games42% · 157 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenDukalis
62% · 105 games41% · 127 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Hoodwink
Hoodwink9Class
48% · 113 games44% · 207 games
WarlockxNova
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 52%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3